Box office estimations have Venom: The Last Dance coming well below the opening weekend of the previous two films. After the box office disaster that was Joker: Folie à Deux, theaters were likely hoping to see a major rebound at the box office with the Venom sequel. However, just like Joker 2, it appears having a successful predecessor does not translate to a strong opening weekend for a new entry, as The Last Dance will seemingly fail to match the heights of its predecessors.
Variety estimates that Venom: The Last Dance will land a $65 million opening weekend. While that would make it the eighth highest-grossing opening weekend of 2024, it is well below Venom’s $80 million opening and the $90 million Let There Be Carnage earned in 2021. If estimations hold, The Last Dance‘s opening weekend will be $15 million below Venom and $25 million below Venom: Let There Be Carnage. Even with the $85 million international estimate, and a $150 million worldwide opening weekend, it is still below the first film’s $205 million. Of course, Venom: Let There Be Carnage had a slower rollout in international markets due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
If The Last Dance comes in below box office estimations, it will continue a trend of sequels to popular superhero movies underperforming. Shazam! Fury of the Gods, The Marvels, Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom, Joker: Folie à Deux, and now potentially Venom: The Last Dance paint a portrait of a general lack of interest in general audiences in these superhero sequels. Meanwhile, The Last Dance certainly has plenty of opportunities to bounce back. It is the last major film being released in theaters for three weeks, as studios are looking to avoid releasing films during the 2024 presidential election.
Venom: The Last Dance Lacks a Strong Hook for Audiences
One factor likely working against Venom: The Last Dance‘s favor is the lack of a big marketing hook. 2018’s Venom was the solo film of a highly popular Marvel character and was released during the superhero movie’s peak popularity. Audiences likely showed up to see if Venom would be connected to the Marvel Cinematic Universe. Venom: Let There Be Carnage featured Carnage, one of Marvel’s most famous villains, to draw in viewers and to be a big blockbuster title after the COVID-19 pandemic. Venom: Let There Be Carnage briefly held the record for the biggest opening weekend for a movie following the COVID-19 theater shutdowns, losing it two months later to Sony’s own Spider-Man: No Way Home, which featured Venom in a post-credit scene.
Related
Tom Hardy’s Venom Takes on the Hot Ones Challenge in Hilarious The Last Dance Promo
“It’s like licking Satan’s nut sack!”
Despite marketing Venom: The Last Dance as the final adventure, it seems insufficient for some people. Knull is a new villain in Marvel Comics and doesn’t have the draw that Carnage did. General audiences are also likely wise to the idea that these Venom movies are not connected to the MCU Spider-Man movies. Despite rumors, Venom will not likely share the screen with Tom Holland’s Peter Parker or any other version of the webhead. In between the release of Venom: Let There Be Carnage and Venom: The Last Dance, Sony Pictures has also released Morbius and Madame Web, which certainly have hurt their Spider-Man related brand. Early word of mouth for Venom: The Last Dance among fans and critics has been good, so that might help it rebound in the following weeks, but it continues to paint a portrait that superhero movies are no longer the guaranteed box office hit they were even just three years ago.