Box office estimations have come in for Mufasa: The Lion King, and while it might be a hit over the holiday season, it will be a significant step-down from its 2019 predecessor. Directed by Barry Jenkins, Mufasa: The Lion King is both a prequel and sequel to 2019’s The Lion King, as Rafiki tells how Mufasa and Scar went from best friends to bitter rivals to Simba’s daughter, Kiara. Disney has set the film to be their big holiday season release on the same weekend they have typically saved for Star Wars and Avatar films.
Deadline reports that the Quorum tracking service projects Mufasa: The Lion King to open for between $59 million and $66 million over the three-day opening weekend. The site notes that this was before the newest trailer was released, which will likely be attached to many of the biggest movies of November, including Wicked, Gladiator II, and Moana 2, which should boost interest and awareness among moviegoers. Mufasa: The Lion King scored a 62 on the Quorum ‘Pay to See’ scale, which tracks audiences polled who’ll leave the house to see the film, which puts it in the company of the big three Thanksgiving releases, tied with Moana 2 and just one point behind Gladiator II‘s 63 and two points behind Wicked‘s 64.
Mufasa: The Lion King is opening against Sonic the Hedgehog 3 on Dec. 20, 2024. Both movies look to cater to different audiences as Mufuasa: The Lion King is tracking higher with female audience members while Sonic the Hedgehog 3 is skewing more male. Meanwhile, Mufasa: The Lion King is looking to tap into the over-35 demographic and older moviegoers, likely those who have fond memories of the 1994 animated The Lion King, while Sonic the Hedgehog 3 is aiming for a younger audience. Yet with both movies opening five days before Christmas and eleven days before New Year’s Eve, there will likely be plenty of time for audiences to catch Mufasa: The Lion King and Sonic the Hedgehog 3.
Mufasa Will Have to Wait To Be Box Office King
Mufasa: The Lion King‘s $59 to $66 million is more than $100 million less than what The Lion King opened to in the summer of 2019, where it generated $191 million in its first three days before going on to gross $1.66 billion at the worldwide box office. Mufasa: The Lion King was never going to match that opening weekend, but it also will come in below the opening weekends of The Jungle Book ($103 million), Aladdin ($91.5 million), and The Little Mermaid ($95 million). However, it is tracking well above the opening weekend for Disney’s other two sequels to remakes of animated classics, Alice Through the Looking Glass ($26 million) and Maleficent: Mistress of Evil ($36 million).
Related
Mufasa: The Lion King Trailer Reactions Are Not Good
The trailer for the prequel to The Lion King has been officially released and fan reactions on social media are anything but good.
Disney is hoping that Mufasa: The Lion King can take advantage of the extended holiday period between Christmas and New Year’s and the slim offerings of movies in the beginning weeks of January. The week before Christmas has been home to record-breaking opening weekends like Star Wars: The Force Awakens and Spider-Man: No Way Home, but it has also been a window of time when movies can open big and sustain themselves for weeks. Aquaman opened to $67 million in its first three days and went on to gross $335 million domestically and $1.15 billion worldwide. Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle had a small $35 million opening weekend but kept audiences’ attention for months and grossed $404 million domestically and $962 million worldwide, becoming the fifth-highest-grossing movie of 2017. Disney certainly would like Mufasa: The Lion King to perform well as it would end 2024 on a strong note for them following the incredible box office of Inside Out 2, Deadpool & Wolverine, and likely Moana 2.
