Eddie Brock’s (Tom Hardy) final go-round as Spider-Man’s most infamous anti-hero could set a major box office record for not only the Venom films, but it also has a legitimate chance to become the top earner among all of Sony’s Spidey spin-offs. At the time of this writing, Venom: The Last Dance is forecast to make somewhere between $80 million and $120 million domestically over its opening weekend (per Boxoffice Pro).
However, if director Kelly Marcel’s film can trend toward the mid or high end of this prediction, The Last Dance could dethrone Venom: Let There Be Carnage, which currently boasts the best premiere among all the Spidey offshoots. Check out all the spin-offs’ numbers below, courtesy of The Numbers:
Opening Weekend Numbers for Sony’s Spider-Man Spin-Offs
- Venom ($80.3 million)
- Venom: Let There Be Carnage ($90 million)
- Morbius ($39 million)
- Madame Web ($15.3 million)
Now, while Let There Be Carnage enjoys the best opening weekend, the original Venom went on to do almost exactly the same amount of money in total domestically that Venom 2 did ($213.51 million versus $213.55 million respectively), even though it made $10 million less during its 2018 premiere. But worldwide, the first symbiotic adventure was the one that flirted with the billion-dollar mark ($856.1 million). Meanwhile, the sequel only finished with $501.5 million globally.
Various Variables Will Determine Venom 3’s Box Office Fate
So far this fall, Beetlejuice Beetlejuice boasted the best box office opening weekend in September with $111 million. However, Venom: The Last Dance is tracking to eat up the competition if it can somehow lean into the $120-million side of its forecast. And poor reviews won’t necessarily derail Eddie Brock (Hardy) and his latest adventure’s chances of becoming the highest-grossing Spidey spin-off for Sony.
In 2018, critics absolutely lambasted the original Venom, and, as a result, the superhero film only registers 30% on the Tomatometer against 363 reviews to this day. And while Venom: Let There Be Carnage posted a far better Rotten Tomatoes score (57% | 282 critiques), these Spider-Man offshoots have relied heavily on the fans to fill theater seats. For starters, both Venom and Venom 2 hold identical “B+” CinemaScores. Likewise, the Popcornmeter (formerly the RT audience score) is very strong for both Venom (80%) and Venom: Let There Be Carnage (84%).
Something that could influence how many people actually see The Last Dance is the Motion Picture Association (MPAA) rating that the third Venom installment actually ends up with. Both the first and second entries were given PG-13 ratings, but there’s still a chance that The Last Dance could receive an R-rating.
And while there are obviously anomalies and exceptions to the rule, like both Deadpool & Wolverine and Joker’s billion-dollar triumphs at the box office, the market share for PG-13 films between 1995 and 2024 is 48.28% (per The Numbers). Meanwhile, R-rated movies during that same time span only have a market share of 26.24%.
Now, before fans get too far ahead of themselves, it’s important to point out that the source predicting The Last Dance’s $80 million to $120 million opening weekend doesn’t always hit the mark. For instance, most recently, Boxoffice Pro predicted that Transformers One could make $40 million to $50 million, but it only ended up bringing in $26 million during its debut. Regardless, though, Eddie and his anti-hero persona are ready to chow down on whatever obstacles stand in their way of achieving that highly coveted Spidey spin-off record.
Venom: The Last Dance
opens in theaters on
October 25.